[World Cup 2026] Could Italy, Wales & Ireland Still Get In? Iran Participation Issue Raises Possibility of 'Replacement Berths'
A potential replacement berth has emerged for Italy, Wales, and Ireland, who were eliminated in the UEFA World Cup 2026 qualifying playoffs. The key lies in the question of Iran's possible withdrawal. FIFA may reach a decision by its annual congress on April 30.
All 48 nations for WC 2026 appeared to have been confirmed, yet a slim path to the tournament remains open for Italy, Wales, and Ireland — countries that had been eliminated in qualifying. The key to that door lies in the question of Iran's participation.
What Is Happening with the Iran National Team
On February 28, 2026, the United States carried out a military operation against Iran alongside Israel. In response, Iran's Sports Minister stated on state television that the country "cannot participate under any circumstances" in the World Cup.
Football Federation of the Islamic Republic of Iran president Taj initially said he would "not travel to the United States," but on March 16 revised his position, declaring: "We are not boycotting the World Cup — we are boycotting America." Iran is reported to be in negotiations with FIFA to move all three of its Group G matches (vs. Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand) from the United States to Mexico.
However, on March 27, the Iranian government issued an order banning all national sports teams from traveling to "hostile nations," and the situation remains fluid.
When Will FIFA Make a Decision?
FIFA president Infantino has maintained his stance that "there is no Plan B," treating Iran's participation as a given, but reports indicate that the FIFA Annual Congress scheduled for April 30 in Vancouver will serve as a key milestone.
With roughly two months until the tournament kicks off (June 11), failure to reach an official conclusion by then could have a significant impact on the organization of the competition.
Replacement Participation Scenarios
Article 6.7 of the FIFA Tournament Regulations states that "if a participating team withdraws or is excluded, FIFA may decide at its own discretion how to proceed."
Three main scenarios are being considered:
Scenario 1: Replacement from Within the Asian Confederation (AFC)
A replacement team would be selected from Asia's allocated berths. The candidates are Iraq or the UAE (United Arab Emirates), who were the next-best sides in AFC qualifying.
Scenario 2: Highest-Ranked Non-Qualified Nation in the FIFA Rankings
The highest-ranked team not already qualified is Italy (12th). There is precedent for replacement teams being called up when a country has been banned for political reasons in past tournaments, and the possibility of Italy receiving a "promotion" berth has been raised.
Scenario 3: Reduce Group G to Three Teams
Rather than filling Iran's spot, Group G would be run with three teams — Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand. However, the impact on the tournament format and schedule would be substantial, and this option is considered unlikely to be implemented.
Could a European Side Take Iran's Place?
If FIFA were to adopt the "highest-ranked non-qualified nation" approach, the following three countries — eliminated in the European qualifying play-offs — would be candidates.
| Country | FIFA Ranking | Qualifying Result |
|---|---|---|
| Italy | 12th | Lost to Bosnia on penalties in the play-off final (absent from the World Cup for the third consecutive tournament) |
| Wales | 37th | Lost to Bosnia on penalties in the play-off semi-finals |
| Ireland | 46th | Lost to Czech Republic on penalties in the play-off semi-finals |
Italy is the frontrunner, but as for the scenario of "holding a mini play-off among the three European nations," neither FIFA nor UEFA has made any official announcement, and it remains purely speculative at this stage.
Penalties if Iran Withdraws
FIFA regulations impose strict sanctions for withdrawing after qualifying.
- Withdrawal up to 30 days before the tournament opens: a minimum fine of CHF 250,000 (approximately ¥50 million)
- Withdrawal less than 30 days before the tournament opens: a minimum fine of CHF 500,000 (approximately ¥100 million)
- Additional sanctions, including bans from future tournaments, may be imposed by the FIFA Disciplinary Committee
It is worth noting that a withdrawal after securing World Cup qualification has no precedent since France and India in 1950.
Key Dates to Watch
- April 30: Discussions and conclusions at the FIFA Annual Congress (Vancouver)
- May 11: 30 days before the tournament opens (fines double after this date)
- June 11: WC 2026 kicks off
For Italy, this would represent a first World Cup appearance in three tournaments since 2014, and anticipation and interest within the country are running high. At present, however, given that FIFA is treating Iran's participation as its top priority, any replacement scenario remains firmly in the realm of "what if."
All eyes will be on FIFA's next moves.