[The Dreaded Penalty Shootout] Can Japan Win in a 'One-Shot' Deciding Match? Their Last 5 Results, the Wall That Is Zion Suzuki, and the True Face of Soccer Kingdom Brazil
The knockout stage brings a sharply higher probability of penalty shootouts. We take a deep dive into Japan's results in their last 5 penalty shootouts, the shot-stopping ability of goalkeeper Zion Suzuki, and Brazil's history in penalty shootouts. Does Japan have what it takes to survive a 'one-shot' deciding match?
In the knockout rounds, if 90 or even 120 minutes can't settle things, it all comes down to a penalty shootout. The "sudden-death" format that doesn't exist in league play separates glory from heartbreak in an instant. If Japan's path through the knockout stage leads them to Brazil — and if it goes all the way to penalties — can Japan really win? We examine the question through recent data, goalkeeper Suzuki Zion, and an honest look at the "Kingdom" itself.
local_fire_department Why Talk About Penalty Shootouts?
First, take a look at these numbers. In recent World Cups, knockout-round matches decided by penalty shootouts have been increasing sharply. Tallying up the knockout stages (16 matches each) from the last three tournaments, here's what we find:
| Tournament | Knockout Matches | PK Decisions | PK Decision Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 Brazil | 16 | 4 | 25.0% |
| 2018 Russia | 16 | 4 | 25.0% |
| 2022 Qatar | 16 | 5 | 31.3% |
| 3-Tournament Total | 48 | 13 | 27.1% |
In other words, roughly 1 in every 4 knockout matches has been decided by a penalty shootout. Moreover, 2022 set an all-time tournament record of 5 shootouts, and the number has trended upward across all three tournaments. On top of that, WC 2026 introduces the newly added "Round of 32," doubling the knockout stage to 32 matches. The sheer number of potential penalty shootouts is only going to increase.
In the group stage, standings are decided by points and draws are perfectly acceptable. The knockout rounds are different. Winners advance, losers go home. If extra time can't settle it, everything is handed over to the penalty spot. The further a team advances in the tournament, the more evenly matched the competition becomes — and the higher the probability of reaching a shootout. That's exactly why "Are you strong in a penalty shootout?" is an unavoidable question for any team aiming for the quarterfinals or semifinals. That's what makes this analysis worth doing.
And for Japan, this has long been a dreaded stumbling block.
sports_soccer Examination 1 | Japan's Last 5 Penalty Shootouts — Any Wins?
The short answer: yes, there are wins. Listing the Japan national team's (senior squad) last 5 penalty shootouts from most recent to oldest:
| Year / Tournament | Round | Opponent | PK Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 WC Qatar | Round of 16 | Croatia | 1-3 | ● Eliminated |
| 2011 Asian Cup | Semifinal | South Korea | 3-0 | ○ Won |
| 2010 WC South Africa | Round of 16 | Paraguay | 3-5 | ● Eliminated |
| 2007 Asian Cup | Third-Place Match | South Korea | 5-6 | ● Lost |
| 2007 Asian Cup | Quarterfinal | Australia | 4-3 | ○ Won |
- 2022: Minamino, Mitoma, and Yoshida all had their kicks saved by GK Livaković, leading to elimination
- 2011: After a 2-2 draw, Kawashima Eiji's heroics in goal secured a dominant shootout win en route to the title
- 2010: Komano Yuichi's kick struck the crossbar, bringing tears
- 2007: Won against Australia, but fell to South Korea in the third-place match
Japan's overall record over the last 5 shootouts is 2 wins and 3 losses. Going back one more, there's also the legendary 2004 Asian Cup quarterfinal against Jordan, where GK Kawaguchi Yoshikatsu's "divine saves" secured a 4-3 victory. Japan is by no means weak in penalty shootouts per se. On Asia's biggest stages, they've come through in sudden-death situations time and again.
The problem is — when the stage becomes the World Cup, the story changes.
info Examination 2 | On the World Cup's Biggest Stage: "0 Wins, 2 Losses"
Japan has contested penalty shootouts at the World Cup on two occasions. Both the 2010 match against Paraguay and the 2022 match against Croatia ended in defeat. In other words, Japan's World Cup shootout record stands at 0 wins and 2 losses.
- 2010: After a scoreless battle, Komano's kick was deflected by the crossbar — a 3-5 defeat
- 2022: Japan took the lead, were pegged back in extra time, and had 3 kicks saved in the shootout — a 1-3 defeat
Winning in Asia, but unable to close the deal on the world's biggest stage. That is the true nature of Japan's dreaded stumbling block. When and if it comes to a penalty shootout against Brazil in the knockout round, the central question will be whether Japan can finally break free from this negative history.
star Examination 3 | Suzuki Zion — A Wall Unlike Any Japan Has Had Before
Even so, this time Japan possesses a weapon they didn't have during either of those two World Cup exits — their goalkeeper, Suzuki Zion.
- Club: Parma Calcio 1913 (Serie A, Italy)
- Date of Birth: August 21, 2002 / Wears jersey number 1 for the Japan national team
- 2025-26 Season (Serie A): 18 appearances · Save rate 70.0% · 5 clean sheets (56 saves / 80 shots faced)
What stands out is that he has delivered results in penalty situations. In the Serie A match against Genoa in October 2025, he used his knee to deflect a late penalty in additional time at the end of the second half, saving his team and earning Man of the Match honors. He pulled off his first Serie A penalty save in the most nerve-wracking moment imaginable. The Italian media compared him to "Buffon."
Reaction speed and nerve from a frame exceeding 190 cm. A goalkeeper who has proven himself capable of making saves on European football's biggest stages represents a new kind of hope for Japan — one that simply didn't exist in the eras of Kawashima (2010) or Gonda (2022). A penalty shootout is often called a 50-50 lottery, but the presence of a single goalkeeper can genuinely shift those odds.
sports_soccer Examination 4 | Even the "Kingdom" of Brazil Is Not Unbeatable in Shootouts
So what about the opposition? Delving into Brazil's penalty shootout history reveals a surprising truth. Brazil's World Cup shootout record stands at 3 wins and 2 losses. It is by no means an "undefeated myth."
| Year / Tournament | Round | Opponent | PK Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 USA | Final | Italy | 3-2 | ○ Champions |
| 1998 France | Semifinal | Netherlands | 4-2 | ○ Won |
| 2014 Brazil | Round of 16 | Chile | 3-2 | ○ Won |
| 1986 Mexico | Quarterfinal | France | 3-4 | ● Eliminated |
| 2022 Qatar | Quarterfinal | Croatia | 4-2 | ● Eliminated |
In 1994, Baggio's kick sailing over the bar delivered a title for the first time in 24 years; in 2014, it was GK Júlio César's fine saves that clinched a narrow victory.
Of particular note is the fact that Brazil's most recent World Cup shootout — in 2022 — ended in defeat. And the opponent was none other than Croatia, the same team that eliminated Japan. Even Brazil, armed with some of the world's finest talent, can be tripped up in sudden death. A penalty shootout is not a guaranteed victory for the stronger side — and it is precisely in that one truth where Japan's chance lies.
arrow_forward Conclusion | The Dreaded Stumbling Block Can Be Broken
Let's bring the data together.
- Japan's World Cup penalty shootout record is 0 wins and 2 losses. It is undeniably a stumbling block.
- But Japan is not weak in penalty shootouts as such. They have won on Asia's biggest stages numerous times.
- This time, Japan has Suzuki Zion — a "goalkeeper who can make saves" who was simply not there during previous eliminations.
- Brazil themselves were knocked out of their most recent World Cup shootout, meaning they are far from invincible.
Of course the ideal is to settle things within 120 minutes before it ever comes to penalties. But if that "sudden-death" moment does arrive — Japan's chances are not zero. In fact, the conditions for finally breaking through this long-dreaded barrier are better aligned than at any previous tournament.
Suzuki Zion saves one against Brazil. In that instant, the history of Japanese football just might change.
info The penalty shootout records in this article are based on Wikipedia's "Penalty Shootout Records" and JFA official records; Suzuki Zion's season statistics are sourced from FootyStats (2025-26 Serie A / as of June 2026). Knockout stage matchups and schedules are subject to change depending on future match results.