[What If ⚡ Simulation] If Key Defenders Drop Out | 3 Alternative Starting Lineup Patterns and Considering Moriyasu Japan's 'Plan B'
If the key three-back trio (Itakura, Tomiyasu, Ito Hiroki) were to drop out during the World Cup, how would Moriyasu Japan respond? This article presents a hypothetical simulation of 3 alternative starting lineup patterns based on the backup players within the official 26-man squad. It explores possible paths to victory using a five-man defensive unit of Watanabe, Taniguchi, Seko, Suzuki Junnosuke, and Nagatomo.
Ahead of the June 15 match against the Netherlands, what would Moriyasu's Japan do if the core back-three (Itakura Kou, Tomiyasu Takehiro, Ito Hiroki) were forced out through injury or accumulated yellows? We explore three "alternative starting XI" patterns based on the replacement options named in the squad.
info Hypothetical Scenario & Support Cast
Consider the hypothesis that all three first-choice centre-backs are unavailable at once. Of the 26-man Japan squad, the players who can be counted on as CBs are:
- Watanabe Takuma (Feyenoord, right CB)
- Taniguchi Shogo (STVV, central CB · veteran, age 34)
- Seko Ayumu (Le Havre, left CB · versatile)
- Suzuki Junnosuke (Copenhagen, left CB · multi-role)
- Nagatomo Yuto (FC Tokyo, originally a fullback by trade, but capable of covering centre and left as a veteran)
With five players available as backup, a starting XI can be assembled even if all three depart simultaneously. However, a change in "texture" is unavoidable.
sports_soccer Pattern 1: Maintain the Back-Three — Personnel Changes Without Touching the System
Keep Moriyasu's 3-4-2-1 intact, with wide stoppers on both flanks and a central stopper in the middle. The following three players slot into the starting XI.
- Left CB: Suzuki Junnosuke (composure, pace, and the advantage of being left-footed)
- Centre CB: Taniguchi Shogo (the experience and leadership of a 34-year-old)
- Right CB: Watanabe Takuma (natural right CB, already familiar with club teammate Ueda from their time together at Feyenoord)
info The key is Taniguchi's experience. He carries the "squad memory" of having been a regular at the Qatar World Cup and is capable of leading the group.
local_fire_department Pattern 2: Switch to a Back-Four, Adding Fullback Specialists on the Flanks
Even without Ito Hiroki, fullback experts Nagatomo Yuto and Sugawara Yukinari are available, making a switch to 4-2-3-1 another viable option.
- Back four (left → centre-left → centre-right → right): Nagatomo Yuto · Suzuki Junnosuke · Watanabe Takuma · Sugawara Yukinari
- Double pivot: Sano Kaishu · Endo Wataru
- Attacking midfielder: Kamada Daichi
- Both wings: Kubo Takefusa · Ito Junya
- Striker: Ueda Ayase
The advantage is that "crosses from wide" and "dribbles from Kubo and Ito Junya" come alive. The downside is increased physical demands from covering the flanks.
star Pattern 3: "Veteran Spine" — Nagatomo & Taniguchi as a Double CB Start
The most "eye-catching" scenario. Deploy Nagatomo Yuto (age 39) and Taniguchi Shogo (age 34) as a CB pairing, adopting a "veteran spine" approach.
The advantage is the "volume of communication on the pitch". The veteran presence to keep the team calm in difficult situations acts as a crossbar. The downsides are pace and stamina, but "generation and experience" are assets no one can simply surpass.
favorite Which Option Will Moriyasu's Japan Choose?
Based on how manager Moriyasu has historically deployed his squad, Pattern 1 (maintain the back-three) appears most likely. It is widely regarded as Japan Blue's established practice to "rotate personnel rather than change the system".
info However, if only Ito Hiroki is ruled out, Pattern 3 (veteran spine) is also realistic. The scenario would be to entrust pace to younger or more athletic players, while using veterans to keep the team settled.
info Talking Points for Tomorrow
- "Of the 26, five players can operate as CB. The depth of alternatives reflects just how much the first-choice and backup roles overlap."
- "Even with all three starters out simultaneously, a starting XI can be built across three patterns. Moriyasu's Japan is a 'rotate the personnel' outfit."
- "Pattern 3 is the veteran spine approach. Nagatomo at 39 and Taniguchi at 34 as a CB pairing — a 'win through experience' scenario."
info Related Links
- article Japan National Team WC 2026 — Full 26-Man Squad List
- article 【SAMURAI BLUE by the Numbers #2】12 World Cup veterans · Over 900 combined caps
- article 【What-If ⚡ Simulation】What if Japan faced Brazil in the Round of 16?